MANGKANYA JANGAN SOK TAU

Dulu sebelum menjadi menteri, Rizal Ramli (RR) selalu mengkritisi pemerintah dengan sangat lugas dan cerdas. Itu sebabnya mengapa Presiden Jokowi kemudian tertarik mengajaknya bergabung untuk menjadi salah satu menterinya. Lalu saat dipercaya menjadi menteri, dikatakankah bila Presiden Jokowi itu orang yang humble dan enak diajak diskusi.

Sayangnya harapan sang presiden diluar perkiraan. RR tetap saja bikin gaduh hingga bakat dan performanya justru jadi tenggelam karenanya, hingga harus berujung dengan reshuffle. Lebih disayangkan lagi bukannya introspeksi, yang ada malah makin gaduh, karena kerap mengeluarkan pernyataan yang konyol dan terkesan lebih kepada nyinyir, seolah ia sangat kecewa dengan reshuffle.

Sejak saat itu RR banyak mengeluarkan pernyataan yang konyol. Diantaranya saat RR melalui akun Twitter-nya menyebut mendapatkan informasi dari anggota TNI AD berpangkat Letnan Kolonel (Letkol) yang menyebutkan TNI memiliki data hasil pemilu. Data itu menyebutkan Prabowo Subianto dan Sandiaga Uno menang di Pilpres 2019.

Tentu saja hal tersebut dibantah oleh Kepala Staf TNI Angkatan Darat (Kasad) Jenderal Andika Perkasa yang mengatakan apa yang disampaikan mantan Menko Kemaritiman RR bahwa TNI AD memiliki data hasil pemilu adalah 'Bohong atau Hoax'. Andika tegaskan TNI AD sama sekali tidak memiliki data hasil pemilu. Hal itu karena masalah pemilu bukan kewenangan TNI, termasuk AD.

Kemudian pada Maret 2019 masih melalui akun Twitter-nya RR pun menyebut kreditor pesta pora, rakyat semakin terbebani, dan Menteri Keuangan semakin ngawur alias asal-asalan. Tapi, cuitan itu kemudian dihapus RR. Sontak hal ini pun ditepis oleh Kementerian Keuangan yang mengatakan bila Utang itu adalah keputusan bersama dengan DPR RI.

Bahkan Direktur Eksekutif Center for Indonesia Taxation Analysis (CITA) Yustinus Prastowo ikut mengomentari cuitan Rizal: "Nambah satu lagi nih bikin hoax yang menyesatkan. Bang Rizal Ramli, itu bukan utang baru. Itu Global Bonds dalam USD terbitan 2009, jatuh tempo Maret 2019 dan akan DILUNASI. Kebijakan era Pak @SBYudhoyono yg bisa dimaklumi, waktu itu krisis global, BI rate 9.5%. Bertaubatlah!" tulisnya dalam akun Twitternya @prastow.

Sejatinya RR ini sangat tahu sekali tentang perekonomian Indonesia termasuk masalah utang. Namun entah karena saat ini menjadi oposisi, sehingga harus kerap membuat pernyataan yang justru kabur dan melenceng.

Misalnya masalah Utang. Jelas itu bersifat legal karena diatur dalam undang-undang tersendiri, dimana maksimal utang tidak lebih dari 65% dari nilai PDB, halmana utang Indonesia baru sekitar 30%-nan dan itu pun setelah diakumulasikan dengan utang-utang warisan dari era-era sebelumnya. Utang di era Presiden Jokowi pun bukan untuk digunakan ke sektor konsumtif, tapi lebih kepada sektor produktif, diantaranya untuk membangun infrastruktur yang berguna untuk jangka panjang yang sangat integratif.

Yang terkini adalah pernyataan konyol yang meramal bila krisis ekonomi di Indonesia akan lebih parah dari krisis moneter yang berakibat krisis ekonomi dunia, termasuk Indonesia yang terjadi pada tahun 1998. Nyatanya hal ini pun sama sekali tak terbukti, karena pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia walau kecil, namun masih plus dan yang terbaik di Asia. Bahkan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar mulai mendekati ke angka 13.000. Semoga ini lalu stabil.

Lalu pada Maret 2020 lalu, halmana RR memprediksi, krisis ekonomi ini akan memicu kasus gagal bayar sejumlah perusahaan asuransi di tanah air, diantaranya adalah Jiwasraya dan Asabri. Permasalahan gagal bayar asuransi Jiwasraya dan Asabri pun turut berperan dalam permasalahan ekonomi. Ternyata persoalan ini pun bisa diatasi dengan baik oleh Kementerian BUMN.

Mengapa hal ini terjadi? Tentu saja Presiden Jokowi beserta jajarannya tidak akan serampangan dalam merancang kebijakan, utamanya terkait kebijakan fiskalnya. Sri Mulyani sendiri tak disangsikan merupakan Menteri Keuangan terbaik di Asia dan Dunia yang terpilih secara berturut-turut.

Sejatinya banyak indikator yang bisa dijadikan alat ukur untuk memprediksi perekonomian Indonesia. Jadi bukan hanya karena prediksi dan penilaian para pakar ekonomi dunia yang mengatakan bila Indonesia akan kuat serta akan segera pulih cepat setelah China. Namun dengan tidak menetapkan kebijakan lockdown pun menjadi salah satu penyebabnya.

Yang pasti bahwa pasar merespon positif terhadap kebijakan yang dikeluarkan pemerintah, dibukanya kembali aktivitas perekonomian. Banyak faktor lainnya seperti halnya permintaan domestik yang masih terjaga, juga konsumsi rumah tangga terjaga. Selain tak manampikan melimpahnya likuiditas di pasar keuangan global seiring dengan program stimulus yang dilakukan Amerika dan banyak negara maju.

"Namun tidak ada hubungannya sama sekali dengan kebijakan Gubernur DKI Jakarta yang menerapkan PSBB seperti yang diwartakan oleh 'Detik News,' terlebih yang menerapkan PSBB bukan hanya DKI Jakarta saja. Dengan demikian bisa dikatakan bila Detik News sedang berhalusinasi untuk mengatrol Gubernur DKI Jakarta agar terkesan oke."

Satu hal dari ekonom asal Padang ini yang patut dihargai adalah ia selalu minta maaf dan menghapus cuitannya bila memang isinya ngawur. Namun demikian sebagai seorang elite yang memiliki pengalaman panjang, hendaknya tidak perlu mengumbar pernyataan yang tak penting yang pada akhirnya justru hanya mempermalukan diri sendiri, dan yang pasti 'Sok Tau' lo coy.. Emang ente doang yang ngerti ekonomi makro wahai Rajawali Ngepret yang nyatanya cuma kepepret?

Oleh: Wahyu Sutono

Salam NKRI Gemilang 🇲🇨🇲🇨

Climate change

Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It can be a change in the average weather or a change in the distribution of weather events around an average (for example, greater or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.
In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change usually refers to changes in modern climate (see global warming). For information on temperature measurements over various periods, and the data sources available, see temperature record. For attribution of climate change over the past century, see attribution of recent climate change.

Causes

Factors that can shape climate are often called climate forcings. These include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and continental drift, and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in reaction to climate forcing because of their large mass. Therefore, the climate system can take centuries or longer to fully respond to new external force.

Plate tectonics

Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.
The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global climate. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago, which shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This strongly affected the ocean dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may have led to Northern Hemisphere ice cover. Earlier, during the Carboniferous period, plate tectonics may have triggered the large-scale storage of carbon and increased glaciation. Geologic evidence points to a "megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during the time of the supercontinent Pangaea, and climate modeling suggests that the existence of the supercontinent was conductive to the establishment of monsoons.
More locally, topography can influence climate. The existence of mountains (as a product of plate tectonics through mountain-building) can cause orographic precipitation. Humidity generally decreases and diurnal temperature swings generally increase with increasing elevation. Mean temperature and the length of the growing season also decrease with increasing elevation. This, along with orographic precipitation, is important for the existence of low-latitude alpine glaciers and the varied flora and fauna along at different elevations in montane ecosystems.
The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans on temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than they are inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate is strongly seasonal than will several smaller continents and/or island arcs.

Solar output

Main article: Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of sunspots and beryllium isotopes.

The sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. Both long- and short-term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate.
Early in Earth's history the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does today. With the same atmospheric composition as exists today, liquid water should not have existed on Earth. However, there is evidence for the presence of water on the early Earth, in the Hadean and Archean eons, leading to what is known as the faint young sun paradox. Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly different atmosphere, with much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently exist Over the following approximately 4 billion years, the energy output of the sun increased and atmospheric composition changed, with the oxygenation of the atmosphere being the most notable alteration. The luminosity of the sun will continue to increase as it follows the main sequence. These changes in luminosity, and the sun's ultimate death as it becomes a red giant and then a white dwarf, will have large effects on climate, with the red giant phase possibly ending life on Earth.
Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar cycle and longer-term modulations. The 11-year sunspot cycle produces low-latitude warming and high-latitude cooling over limited areas of statistical significance in the stratosphere with an amplitude of approximately 1.5°C. But although "variability associated with the 11-yr solar cycle has a significant influence on stratospheric temperatures. ...there is still no consensus on the exact magnitude and spatial structure". These stratospheric variations are consistent with the idea that excess equatorial heating can drive thermal winds. In the near-surface troposphere, there is only a small change in temperature (on the order of a tenth of a degree, and only statistically significant in limited areas underneath the peaks in stratospheric zonal wind speed) due to the 11-year solar cycle. Solar intensity variations are considered to have been influential in triggering the Little Ice Age, and for some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow change that is happening within the sun as it ages and evolves, with some studies pointing toward solar radiation increases from cyclical sunspot activity affecting global warming.

Orbital variations

Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. The former is similar to solar variations in that there is a change to the power input from the sun to the Earth system. The latter is due to how the orbital variations affect when and where sunlight is received by the Earth. The three types of orbital variations are variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which have a large impact on climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and interglacial periods, their correlation with the advance and retreat of the Sahara, and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.

Volcanism

Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the Earth to its surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are examples of volcanic processes which release gases and/or particulates into the atmosphere.
Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century, and cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface) for a period of a few years. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century (after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta) affected the climate substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F). The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the Year Without a Summer. Much larger eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million years, but may cause global warming and mass extinctions.
Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle, counteracting the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. According to the US Geological Survey, however, estimates are that human activities generate more than 130 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.

Ocean variability

Main article: Thermohaline circulation

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation

The ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system. Short-term fluctuations (years to a few decades) such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, represent climate variability rather than climate change. On longer time scales, alterations to ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very slow and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in the world's oceans.

Human influences

Main article: Global warming

Anthropogenic factors are human activities that change the environment. In some cases the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous (for example, the effects of irrigation on local humidity), whilst in other instances it is less clear. Various hypotheses for human-induced climate change have been argued for many years. Presently the scientific consensus on climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase in global average temperatures over the past several decades. Consequently, the debate has largely shifted onto ways to reduce further human impact and to find ways to adapt to change that has already occurred.
Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO₂ levels due to emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture and deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they play - both separately and in conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate.

Physical evidence for climatic change

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to reconstruct past climates. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 1800s. For earlier periods, most of the evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred from changes in indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, ice cores, dendrochronology, sea level change, and glacial geology.

Historical & Archaeological evidence

Main article: Historical impacts of climate change

Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in settlement and agricultural patterns. Archaeological evidence, oral history and historical documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. Climate change effects have been linked to the collapse of various civilisations.

Glaciers

Variations in CO₂, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000 years

Glaciers are among the most sensitive indicators of climate change, advancing when climate cools (for example, during the period known as the Little Ice Age) and retreating when climate warms. Glaciers grow and shrink, both contributing to natural variability and amplifying externally forced changes. A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s. Initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps, this compilation has resulted in a detailed inventory of more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km² and, in preliminary estimates, for the recording of the remaining ice cover estimated to be around 445,000 km². The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present. Mass balance data indicate 17 consecutive years of negative glacier mass balance.

The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial period (the Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years. Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard–Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas, however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without the forcing effect of orbital changes.
Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material - including organic matter that may be accurately dated - recording the periods in which a glacier advanced and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of soil or volcanic tephra horizons whose date of deposit may also be precisely ascertained.

Vegetation

A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change in the climate; this much is obvious. In any given scenario, a mild change in climate may result in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the subsequent sequestration of airborne CO₂. Larger, faster or more radical changes, however, may well result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and desertification in certain circumstances.

Ice cores

Analysis of ice in a core drilled from a ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice sheet, can be used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO₂ variations of the atmosphere from the distant past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice cores has been a significant indicator of the changes in CO₂ over many millennia, and continue to provide valuable information about the differences between ancient and modern atmospheric conditions.

Dendrochronology

Dendochronology is the analysis of tree ring growth patterns to determine the age of a tree. From a climate change viewpoint, however, Dendochronology can also indicate the climatic conditions for a given number of years. Wide and thick rings indicate a fertile, well-watered growing period, whilst thin, narrow rings indicate a time of lower rainfall and less-than-ideal growing conditions.

Pollen analysis

Palynology is the study of contemporary and fossil palynomorphs, including pollen. Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species, which vary under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different sedimentation levels in lakes, bogs or river deltas indicate changes in plant communities; which are dependent on climate conditions.

Insects

Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given the extensive lineage of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered significantly over the millennia, knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the sediments in which remains are found, past climatic conditions may be inferred.

Sea level change

Main article: Current sea level rise

Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been estimated using tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time to give a long-term average. More recently, altimeter measurements — in combination with accurately determined satellite orbits — have provided an improved measurement of global sea level change.

CHARACTER in drama

Fictitious creations and thus the dramatist and the novelist may both be judged with regard to their ability in the art of characterization.  As we have noted in the introduction , there is no narration or description in a drama. Instead, all characterization must be presented trough dialogue. Character speak about each other and character speak about themselves – particularly of course about their central emotions. Such as love and hate. The combination of speeches and actions throughout a play, the small aside and jokes. The short angry speeches, the lengthy diatribes. All add up to produce in our minds an understanding of the characters in a drama as people who might rally exist.  

Character in action

            We learn about the characters in a play by closely observing their actions. There are countless questions which can be asked about the character in action. By answering as many of them as possible we attempt to analyze the character does terms of their action.

Motivation

            The fact remains that the larger actions when characters complete in the course of a play have identified motives behind them and thus we as critics have every right and duty to analyze character motivation

Hope for reward a

            A major character desires to bring happiness and prosperity to himself or to those whom he loves all of his actions are planned to hasten the advent of prosperity.

Love

            Basically a particular extension of hope for reward. A character is motivated to certain action because of the love which he has. The love which he wants. Or the love which someone has for him.

Fear of failure

            An inversion of the hope for reward. A character works in a certain fashion because he fears that he will be crushed if he does not.

Religious felling

            Occasionally but not frequently, we discover a character who is motivated by religious faith.

Revenge

            Although there are certain plays which we speak of as “revenge tragedies” there are many plays in which we both major and minor characters motivated by desire to avenge the death of a loved friend or relative.

Greed

            This is a particular kind of motivation in the category of “hope for reward” which becomes outstanding motive in its own right in many plays.

Jealousy

            A final corollary kind of motive, in this case connecting to both love and fear of failure. Jealousy operates as one of the most particular and strongest motives in all drama.

The rounded personality

            While we can usually speak of a character’s central motive for doing what he does in the course of the play. We can rarely assume that he has one and only one motive.

Caricature

            In fiction we speak of a “caricature” when a character’s outstanding trait becomes so outstanding that it becomes unbelievable. in drama we generally refer to this kind of character as a type. In general we find types among minor characters but almost never among major. There is no reason for fully developing a character who has but a small role within a play, just as it would be disastrous and inartistic not to develop quite extensively a major character.